Election latest: Starmer avoids saying where funding for NHS reform will come from as poll suggests public backs tax rises to pay for healthcare (2024)

By Professor Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst

Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election 'horse race' - who is up and who is down in the polls - on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there's talk of "crossover".

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There's a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Read the full analysis below:

By Dr Hannah Bunting, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

This week, the leaders were selling their visions to voters as they launched their manifestos, and Sunak and Starmer went head to head in Grimsby at the Sky News live election special The Battle For Number 10.

Watch their journeys in the latest week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Honorary Professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Read the full piece below:

On Wednesday, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer faced a grilling from Sky's political editor Beth Rigbyand our live audience in Grimsby on their plans for government.

The two men were questioned on their pledges to the electorate, their trustworthiness, their records, and whether they are suited to lead the country as it faces challenges on many fronts.

If you were not able to watch the programme - fear not, because we are airing an hour-long highlights show live on Sky News now.

You can also watch live in the stream above, and at the link below.

You can watch Sky News free wherever you get your news.

Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.

So far, only one poll has shown Reform ahead of the Conservatives - the Tories are currently an average of 7 points ahead of Nigel Farage's party.

Read more about the tracker here.

Earlier today, it was announced that former Arsenal and Everton footballer Kevin Campbell had died aged 54.

Labour leader and Arsenal fan Sir Keir Starmer has paid tribute to the former Gunner.

Writing on social media, Sir Keir said: "Deeply saddened to hear about the death of Kevin Campbell.

"I had the privilege of watching him play for Arsenal in the early 90s - a cult hero at Highbury, loved by so many in football and beyond. My thoughts are with his friends and family."

Read more tributes to Campbell in the piece below:

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been off the campaign trail today, as he attends Trooping the Colour.

The ceremony in central London takes place to honour the King on his official birthday.

Mr Sunak flew back from the G7 summit in Italy to watch proceedings, and will be flying out to Switzerland for a Ukraine peace summit later today.

Labour are campaigning on the NHS today.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, has given an interview to The Times.

Mr Streeting says that while he does "feel a loyalty to the NHS", he reiterates that it is "a service, not a shrine".

His position - that the NHS needs to be reformed - has seen him criticised by some in unions and on the left of his party.

But he defends people who choose to use private healthcare - as he considered when he was being treated for kidney cancer.

"People who are going private are refugees, not traitors," Mr Streeting said.

"People are voting with their feet, through no fault of their own, I don't judge people who have paid to go private — they're fleeing from the NHS."

Speaking to reporters today, Sir Keir Starmer says that putting capital gains tax on first houses was never a Labour policy.

The Conservatives have been trying to claim Labour will raise any tax that has not been ruled out.

Asked about capital gains, Sir Keir says: "Absolutely, it was never a policy.

"It doesn't need ruling out, but let's rule it out, in case anyone pretends that it was (a policy)."

Asked whether he had been "vague" in his tax pledges, Sir Keir said: "Well, I think when it comes to tax, we've been really clear they won't rise, so that's no rise in income tax and national insurance or VAT.

"This is just a desperate story by the Tories in relation to capital gains tax on primary residences."

While Sir Keir Starmer campaigns in England, Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner is in Livingstone, West Lothian.

Speaking to Sky News, Ms Rayner is asked about the union reaction to Labour's green plans.

The party's policy to not issue new oil and gas licences could impact the massive industry in Scotland.

Unite, Labour's biggest donor, has called for no action to be taken in the sector without a plan.

Asked if Labour does not have a viable plan, Ms Rayner says: "No, I dispute that - and Unite will always want more.

"That is what Unite is like, and I appreciate that as a former union rep myself.

"But a new deal for working people will transform the working lives of people here in Scotland."

She adds that "oil and gas won't last forever" - but existing licences will be guaranteed.

"So this scaremongering that those jobs will go is not correct," Ms Rayner says.

In our previous post, Sir Keir Starmer was questioned about his commitments on the NHS.

It was based on analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent economic think tank.

After Labour's manifesto was released, the IFS said: "The Labour Party has not set out an overall spending plan for health and social care in England.

"This makes it impossible to judge the plausibility of the party's plans for cutting waiting times, increasing the workforce and building new hospitals.

"Achieving the promises in the manifesto will require the NHS budget to grow substantially faster than inflation over the next parliament, almost certainly needing growth of upwards of 3% above inflation each year."

It added that the £1.8bn promised by Labour amounts to less than 1% of the £192 health and social care budget.

And the IFS went on to say that Labour commits to major reform in adult social care but provides "next to no detailon how or when these would be implemented".