The 2024 WNBA season might be the most anticipated in the league’s history, and it’s almost here. The first game of the WNBA regular season tips off Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET in Washington, D.C., pitting the Washington Mystics against last season’s runner-up, the New York Liberty.
Throughout the night, we’ll get WNBA stars on the court or in the conversation, including veterans such as Brittney Griner, Aliyah Boston, Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson, and newcomers fresh off an NCAA Tournament under the lights: Nika Mühl, Alissa Pili, Aaliyah Edwards, Dyaisha Fair, Kate Martin — and, of course, Caitlin Clark.
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The night’s action promises plenty of elite basketball and more eyes on the game than ever. April’s WNBA Draft drew over a 300 percent increase in viewership compared to last year’s, which was 42 percent higher than 2022. Clark played her first preseason game on May 3 in front of a sold-out stadium in Dallas.
Preseason.
This is the hype around this year’s WNBA, thanks to a combination of increasing coverage, parity and, of course, exciting new talent like Clark and Angel Reese.
With opening night finally here, we’re taking one more preseason look at the WNBA odds for the whole season, including odds for the title winner, MVP and Rookie of the Year. Plus, WNBA staff writers Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant made predictions (regardless of odds) for five awards and a champion.
Let’s get into it!
All odds fromBetMGM.Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
2024 WNBA championship winner odds
No surprises here. The two super-teams at the top of the league are also at the top of the odds to win the 2024 WNBA championship. And there’s a lot of air between them and the rest of the field.
The Las Vegas Aces are aiming for a three-peat this season, and they’re a great bet to make it happen. They’ve returned their entire playoff roster, including Wilson, the reigning finals MVP. Their three top players are all under the age of 30. They’ve finished three of the past four seasons with the best record in the WNBA and clinched a postseason spot for five consecutive years.
The Liberty are on a mission this year to avenge their finals loss to the Aces in 2023. They lost in four games to the Aces after looking like the best team for a large portion of the regular season. The Liberty also bring back their core, including Stewart, who was last year’s MVP, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Jonquel Jones (2021 MVP).
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After the super-teams, we have the Seattle Storm, Connecticut Sun and Indiana Fever with much longer odds.
The Storm finished the 2023 season a disappointing 11-29 and made big moves in the offseason, acquiring Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike (2016 MVP) to join forces with their star Jewell Loyd, who was the first overall pick in the 2015 WNBA Draft.
The Sun went 27-13 last year and made it to the semifinals, where they lost in four to the Liberty. This year looks like it may be more of the same for Connecticut.
For the Fever, the obvious highlight for 2024 is the acquisition of Clark, after going 13-27 last year and finishing 10th in a 12-team league. But Clark isn’t the only star on that squad: Aliyah Boston, the 2023 Rookie of the Year, returns to the Fever for 2024.
Pickman’s prediction: Las Vegas Aces. The Aces rightly enter this season as the favorites to win a third straight title. Four of the 12 U.S. Olympians almost certainly will come from this roster. And though continuity will help New York (and Connecticut) improve, and Seattle bolstered its roster, the Aces have shown they can win big games no matter who is on the floor. It’s hard to pick against them.
Merchant’s prediction: Las Vegas Aces. Although it seems reckless to project a three-peat, which would be just the second in WNBA history, it would be more reckless to pick against the quartet of Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray. They’re at the peak of their powers and show no signs of slowing down.
2024 WNBA MVP odds
The chalkiness of this year’s WNBA season — with the Aces and Liberty dominating — shows up in the MVP odds, too. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson took the prize in 2023 and 2022, and they’re by far the favorites to do it again. It’s really a battle of if you think it’s Wilson’s turn again or if Stewart will do enough to clinch her second in a row.
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In third place is the surprise-but-not-surprise of Clark. A rookie has won MVP only one time in league history, and that was Candace Parker in 2008. But, as Jordan Brenner explained, Parker was on an exceptional L.A. Sparks team that year. It’s highly unlikely that Clark will win this, but it also makes sense to see her third in the odds, especially after her strong preseason debut. It’s likely that the public is hammering that bet right now. Clark jumped above the Sun’s Alyssa Thomas last week.
Clark is fun to bet on, but don’t do it here. Your best bet is to go for Stewart or Wilson.
Pickman’s prediction: A’ja Wilson (Las Vegas). Entering the season, she’s the best player in the league on the best team in the league. And considering she didn’t win this award last year, Wilson could enter this season especially motivated to earn it. One other name to watch: Storm guard Jewell Loyd. If Seattle jumps back into title contention, expect Loyd, a five-time All-Star and last year’s WNBA scoring champion, to be at the center of it all.
Merchant’s prediction: A’ja Wilson (Las Vegas). This pick was all but settled the day the 2023 MVP vote was revealed, when not only did Wilson finish third, but a lone media member gave her a fourth-place vote. Wilson has cited that slight as motivation ever since. Wilson looks primed to earn her third MVP trophy, which would tie Sheryl Swoopes, Lisa Leslie and Lauren Jackson for the most all time.
WNBA Rookie of the Year odds
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but here’s another market that it’s probably not worth putting your money on Clark. Yes, she’s very likely to win this; it’s hard to imagine the Rookie of the Year not going to Clark unless something really goes awry. But these odds are just so chalky, and she’s so ahead of the field, you’d be better spending your money elsewhere.
If you’re a risk-taker, try Cameron Brink or Aaliyah Edwards.
Pickman’s prediction: Caitlin Clark (Indiana). The No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft has won Rookie of the Year honors the last two years and there’s little reason to think Clark won’t enter the league and produce like top picks of the recent past. An All-Star berth and top-rookie honors seem well within the realm of possibilities for the Fever guard.
Merchant’s prediction: Caitlin Clark (Indiana). At the risk of picking only obvious answers, let’s not overthink this. Clark is the most accomplished rookie to come through the WNBA in a very long time, and Indiana is letting her run the show. The majority of rookies of the year (14 out of 26) have been No. 1 picks, including 11 of the last 16. This is Clark’s award to lose.
Ben and Sabreena are aligned on champion, Rookie of the Year and MVP. To add a bit more variety, they also made predictions for Coach of the Year, Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year.
Coach of the Year
Pickman:Noelle Quinn (Seattle)
If the Storm are able to finish as one of the WNBA’s top four seeds this season, Quinn will put herself in a position to win top coach honors. The Storm won only 11 games last season. Now with Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith joining a core that already had Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor, Quinn will be tasked with drawing the most out of a revamped roster. I think she will.
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Merchant: Teresa Weatherspoon (Chicago)
This is generally an award that goes to coaches on winning teams, and I don’t project the Sky to be one of those. But I do believe that Weatherspoon will instill a winning culture in Chicago, have her team playing hard every night and surprise some opponents.
Most Improved Player
Pickman: NaLyssa Smith (Indiana)
Smith, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft, nearly averaged a double-double (15.5 points and 9.2 rebounds) last season, and Indiana won 11 of its 13 games with her in the lineup (Smith missed nine games due to injury). Now with Clark on the perimeter, Smith should have even more space to operate. I’m careful not to read too much into preseason action, but a 20-point outing in the Fever’s exhibition opener makes me feel more confident about this pick. A breakout season for Smith is on the horizon.
Merchant: Teaira McCowan (Dallas)
McCowan’s statistics have been shockingly consistent over her five WNBA seasons, but with Satou Sabally projected to miss more than half of the season, someone will have to step up in Dallas. McCowan can handle more offensive responsibility in the post, and if she helps elevate the Wings’ defense in her second year in Latricia Trammell’s system, her improvement should be rewarded.
Defensive Player of the Year
Pickman: Natasha Cloud (Phoenix)
Last year, Cloud was voted as one of the top defensive players in The Athletic’s anonymous GM poll. She’s tenacious and physical, and now in Phoenix, she’s set up to again set the tone under first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts. A forward has won WNBA Defensive Player of the Year honors every season since 2018, but Cloud, an All-Defensive first-team member in 2022, could be the guard to snap that streak.
Merchant: Ezi Magbegor (Seattle)
Magbegor has been one of the best defensive players in the game for a couple years with her ability to cover ground and protect the paint. In 2022, she might have won the award had she not been displaced from the starting lineup by the midseason acquisition of Tina Charles. Now she’s on another contending team and will get the bulk of the credit if Seattle excels defensively.
(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Candice Ward / Getty Images)
Hannah Vanbiber is a staff editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Hannah previously wrote for Gaming Today, New York Sports Day, Rocky Top Insider, MLIVE, and other sports betting outlets as a freelance writer. She started her journalism career in Chattanooga, Tennessee, as a reporter and editor covering local sports. Follow Hannah on Twitter @HannahVanbiber
